How much of your growth plan belongs to someone else?

A growth plan can look very convincing until you mark the parts that depend on someone else saying yes.

A partner signing. A platform keeping its terms. A customer getting budget approval. A regulator clearing a deal. Or a change in legislation that affects how you can operate.

They’re often the bits we have the least control over, yet we can build a surprising amount of certainty around them.

Taiwan’s decision to block Grab’s proposed acquisition of Foodpanda’s local business caught my attention this week. The regulator cited competition concerns. Whatever your view of that decision, it’s a reminder that a company’s preferred route to growth can depend on someone else’s assessment. Source

Most businesses won’t face a decision on that scale. But the dependency is familiar.

We hire ahead of a contract. Build around a distribution partner. Forecast revenue from an integration that hasn’t been agreed. Somewhere along the way, “if this happens” becomes “when this happens”.

I’ve become wary of that word, “when”. Has something actually been confirmed, or have we just said it enough times?

There’s nothing wrong with making a calculated commitment before everything’s certain. Waiting for certainty can leave you standing still. But we should be able to explain what we’re assuming, how long we’ll wait and what we’ll do if the answer is no.

For a business expanding across markets, that matters even more. A route that worked in one country can depend on entirely different relationships and conditions in the next.

I’d take one important growth plan and mark its biggest external dependency. Then ask three questions.

Who actually controls that decision? By what date do we need an answer? What’s Plan B?

The alternative might be slower or smaller. It might mean changing the offer, finding another route to customers or delaying a commitment.

I’d rather have that conversation while there’s still room to choose.